Here's how I assess the landscape and what needs to happen for USC to make the playoffs ...
We're also having the LA Times' Brady McCollough on the podcast today to break down the CFP rankings/scenarios. Podcast will post sometime tomorrow. Just recorded Max Browne's segment this morning.
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Lincoln Riley didn't need to wait for the release of the first College Football Playoff rankings Tuesday to share his thoughts on them.
"I don't even look at them, I don't," Riley said Tuesday morning, some six hours before the rankings would be unveiled on ESPN. "Yeah, ask all my friends back in Oklahoma, I don't care about them. Most of the time I don't even know what it is, because it doesn't matter right now. It does not matter one bit. You can go be ranked whatever, you go lose, it don't matter. You keep winning, it takes care of itself."
It matters somewhat, of course, as any team outside the top four has to find a way to leapfrog a team or teams.
In the Trojans' case, they'll need a lot of shake-up in the rankings as they start November slotted No. 9.
USC (7-1, 5-1 Pac-12) is one of five Pac-12 teams in the CFP rankings, along with No. 8 Oregon (7-1), No. 12 UCLA (7-1), No. 14 Utah (6-2) and No. 23 Oregon State (6-2). So far the Trojans are 1-1 against teams in the CFP rankings, with their win at Oregon State and loss at Utah.
So what's the path for USC to reach the College Football Playoff, which Riley did in three of his five seasons as head coach at Oklahoma.
Well ...
-No. 1 Tennessee (8-0) plays at No. 3 Georgia this week, has a road game at 5-3 South Carolina and a potential SEC championship game showdown with No. 6 Alabama, No. 10 LSU or No. 11 Ole Miss. But that would only happen if the Vols beat Georgia, which along with winning out the rest of the schedule would assure a playoff berth regardless of the SEC title game outcome. So basically, USC is not going to leapfrog the Vols -- who have a marquee win over Alabama -- unless things go surprisingly off track in Knoxville the rest of the way.
-'No. 2 Ohio State (8-0) has just one real challenge remaining -- the regular-season finale against No. 5 Michigan (8-0). The winner of that game seems like a lock for a CFP berth assuming it takes care of business otherwise. The loser is likely out, as neither the Buckeyes nor the Wolverines have an overwhelming resume of big wins (No. 15 Penn State being the best for both, though Michigan still has No. 16 Illinois on the schedule).
-No. 3 Georgia (8-0) doesn't have quite the same leeway that Tennessee does. It blew out No. 8 Oregon 49-3 in the season opener, but that's its only marquee win. If the Bulldogs beat the Vols, then that would seemingly stamp their ticket to the CFP regardless of SEC championship game outcome. But if they lose Saturday and thus finish second in the SEC East, losing the chance to compete in the conference championship game, it could come down to how close that final score is with Tennessee and then needing the Vols to beat the SEC West champ. And that last part is ultimately the key for USC. Whether it's Georgia or Tennessee in the SEC title game, the scenario the Trojans can't have happen is Alabama winning that championship game to leave three one-loss, deserving SEC teams in the conversation. It safest to assume that two playoff spots are already going to the SEC, so the hope for USC is that whether it's Tennessee or Georgia representing the SEC East that it then wins the championship game over Alabama or another SEC West champ as well.
-No. 4 Clemson surprised some analysts by landing in the top 4, and the Tigers do not seem to be to the level of their vintage national championship teams. They have taken care of business at 8-0, but that included a 51-45 double-overtime win over No. 21 Wake Forest and a rally last week from an early 21-7 deficit against Syracuse before scoring the final 20 points in a 27-21 win at home. And Clemson has more work left to do, with a road trip to Notre Dame this weekend, a feisty Louisville team and a capable 5-3 South Carolina team left on the schedule, plus the ACC championship game if it maintains its standing. A loss to any of those teams would not only jettison Clemson from the playoff picture but could cause it to fall behind USC, which lost by a point on the road at No. 14 Utah in a badly-officiated game.
-No. 6 Alabama (7-1) would seem to control its destiny, though that path is a daunting one with road games awaiting against No. 10 LSU and No. 11 Ole Miss in back-to-back weeks, the annual rivalry game with Auburn (which can be unpredictable regardless of records) and then a possible SEC championship game opportunity. If Alabama wins out, including a victory over Tennessee or Georgia in the conference title game, then it is a lock obviously. Again, it seems highly likely that two of the four playoff berths go to SEC teams regardless, but USC fans can certainly root for the Tide to drop another game or two and for chaos to ensue. They haven't looked invincible this season.
-No. 7 TCU (8-0) has to win out to have any chance at the CFP, and even then there's no guarantee. The Horned Frogs host Texas Tech then have a tough two-game road swing at Texas and Baylor, which seems like the most likely stretch for a slip-up, before closing the regular season against Iowa State. The Trojans would leapfrog with any TCU loss, though it should be noted the Horned Frogs have notable wins over Oklahoma, Kansas, No. 18 Oklahoma State and No. 13 Kansas State, but USC will also have the chance to better that resume the rest of the way.
-No. 8 Oregon (7-1) has won seven straight games since that 49-3 loss to Georgia to start the Dan Lanning era. The Ducks control their path to the Pac-12 championship game with no league losses yet, but that path gets a little rocky after this week with a closing stretch of home vs. Washington, home vs. No. 14 Utah and at No. 23 Oregon State in a rivalry game. The Ducks have no margin for error if they hope to sneak into the top 4, but they also probably have the best shot from the Pac-12 to make it as well, with the loss to No. 3 Georgia so far in the rearview (and essentially coming on the road in a 'neutral-site' game in Atlanta), the commanding win over No. 12 UCLA and the chance for three more ranked wins, including the Pac-12 championship game. For USC, this is easy -- the Trojans need to hope that the Ducks do make the Pac-12 championship game, that USC also makes it and that it can beat Oregon on that stage to land another marquee win. The Ducks are crucial for the Trojans' CFP chances as they could be even a couple spots higher on this list by the Pac-12 title game. USC is going to need a win of that magnitude to have a chance to vault into the top 4, so for now, Trojans fans should be on the Ducks' bandwagon the next few weeks. Playing a two-loss Oregon team in the title game or rematching with UCLA or a two-loss Utah team won't have quite the same oomph.
So in summation, what is USC's path to the CFP?
Let's realistically concede two spots to the SEC (from any combination of Tennessee, Georgia and Alabama, or hope that LSU wrecks the party somehow), concede another spot to the Big Ten champ (if it's Ohio State or Michigan) and then hope for chaos -- Clemson losing anywhere along the way, one of those three SEC teams falling out, the Ohio State/Michigan loser falling out, TCU picking up its first loss somewhere and Oregon winning out before losing to the Trojans in the Pac-12 championship game. That scenario also, of course, requires Utah to lose again as it holds the Pac-12 tiebreaker over USC, but that would take care of itself with Oregon winning out (as the Ducks and Utes meet in Eugene on Nov. 19).
Got all that?
Or you can just take the Riley approach and focus on USC handling its part of the equation and then seeing how it all shakes out.
"I mean, I've told the team this, we had a year where we lost a game in the middle of the year and we were ranked pretty high, and that didn't matter and then all of a sudden we were like 19 with like a few weeks left -- oh, they've got no shot at the playoff. Five weeks later we got in the playoff. It matters none," Riley said of the initial CFP rankings. "I spend not one percent of my energy, brain power, attention, I can not care less. I care about it at one time -- and that's the last one. That's all that matters."
Riley also isn't worried about his Trojans team getting lost in any of that math and looking ahead. In fact, he suggested that is less of a concern than it would have been for his Oklahoma teams.
"A lot of us as staff members, we've been here, and I don't know if it makes it easier, but you know what it takes and you what you've got to avoid. And one of the pitfalls of a lot of teams is not staying focused on the moment at hand," Riley said. "I do think it helps us because we practice pretty hard. Not a lot of teams are in full pads Tuesdays this time of year. Our guys don't even think twice about it now -- it's just what we do. So I do believe the way we challenge them each and every day, if they're not locked in they get called out pretty quick, they get exposed pretty quick so it kind of makes it a daily fight. It's not like even looking at the games, it's 'like, 'All right, how do I do good in this Tuesday practice?' And that's got to be that singular focus.
"So we've done a good job I think responding to that. I don't really feel like we've looked ahead to other opponents as it's played out. And to be honest, when it's a program that maybe hasn't won quite as much as of late, it's honestly probably a little bit easier right now. It was probably a little bit tougher at times at the previous spot because we won so much."
Breaking down No. 9 USC's potential path to a CFP berth
Analyzing what it will take for USC to earn a College Football Playoff berth after opening at No. 9 in the rankings.
USC.rivals.com
We're also having the LA Times' Brady McCollough on the podcast today to break down the CFP rankings/scenarios. Podcast will post sometime tomorrow. Just recorded Max Browne's segment this morning.
--
Lincoln Riley didn't need to wait for the release of the first College Football Playoff rankings Tuesday to share his thoughts on them.
"I don't even look at them, I don't," Riley said Tuesday morning, some six hours before the rankings would be unveiled on ESPN. "Yeah, ask all my friends back in Oklahoma, I don't care about them. Most of the time I don't even know what it is, because it doesn't matter right now. It does not matter one bit. You can go be ranked whatever, you go lose, it don't matter. You keep winning, it takes care of itself."
It matters somewhat, of course, as any team outside the top four has to find a way to leapfrog a team or teams.
In the Trojans' case, they'll need a lot of shake-up in the rankings as they start November slotted No. 9.
USC (7-1, 5-1 Pac-12) is one of five Pac-12 teams in the CFP rankings, along with No. 8 Oregon (7-1), No. 12 UCLA (7-1), No. 14 Utah (6-2) and No. 23 Oregon State (6-2). So far the Trojans are 1-1 against teams in the CFP rankings, with their win at Oregon State and loss at Utah.
So what's the path for USC to reach the College Football Playoff, which Riley did in three of his five seasons as head coach at Oklahoma.
Well ...
-No. 1 Tennessee (8-0) plays at No. 3 Georgia this week, has a road game at 5-3 South Carolina and a potential SEC championship game showdown with No. 6 Alabama, No. 10 LSU or No. 11 Ole Miss. But that would only happen if the Vols beat Georgia, which along with winning out the rest of the schedule would assure a playoff berth regardless of the SEC title game outcome. So basically, USC is not going to leapfrog the Vols -- who have a marquee win over Alabama -- unless things go surprisingly off track in Knoxville the rest of the way.
-'No. 2 Ohio State (8-0) has just one real challenge remaining -- the regular-season finale against No. 5 Michigan (8-0). The winner of that game seems like a lock for a CFP berth assuming it takes care of business otherwise. The loser is likely out, as neither the Buckeyes nor the Wolverines have an overwhelming resume of big wins (No. 15 Penn State being the best for both, though Michigan still has No. 16 Illinois on the schedule).
-No. 3 Georgia (8-0) doesn't have quite the same leeway that Tennessee does. It blew out No. 8 Oregon 49-3 in the season opener, but that's its only marquee win. If the Bulldogs beat the Vols, then that would seemingly stamp their ticket to the CFP regardless of SEC championship game outcome. But if they lose Saturday and thus finish second in the SEC East, losing the chance to compete in the conference championship game, it could come down to how close that final score is with Tennessee and then needing the Vols to beat the SEC West champ. And that last part is ultimately the key for USC. Whether it's Georgia or Tennessee in the SEC title game, the scenario the Trojans can't have happen is Alabama winning that championship game to leave three one-loss, deserving SEC teams in the conversation. It safest to assume that two playoff spots are already going to the SEC, so the hope for USC is that whether it's Tennessee or Georgia representing the SEC East that it then wins the championship game over Alabama or another SEC West champ as well.
-No. 4 Clemson surprised some analysts by landing in the top 4, and the Tigers do not seem to be to the level of their vintage national championship teams. They have taken care of business at 8-0, but that included a 51-45 double-overtime win over No. 21 Wake Forest and a rally last week from an early 21-7 deficit against Syracuse before scoring the final 20 points in a 27-21 win at home. And Clemson has more work left to do, with a road trip to Notre Dame this weekend, a feisty Louisville team and a capable 5-3 South Carolina team left on the schedule, plus the ACC championship game if it maintains its standing. A loss to any of those teams would not only jettison Clemson from the playoff picture but could cause it to fall behind USC, which lost by a point on the road at No. 14 Utah in a badly-officiated game.
-No. 6 Alabama (7-1) would seem to control its destiny, though that path is a daunting one with road games awaiting against No. 10 LSU and No. 11 Ole Miss in back-to-back weeks, the annual rivalry game with Auburn (which can be unpredictable regardless of records) and then a possible SEC championship game opportunity. If Alabama wins out, including a victory over Tennessee or Georgia in the conference title game, then it is a lock obviously. Again, it seems highly likely that two of the four playoff berths go to SEC teams regardless, but USC fans can certainly root for the Tide to drop another game or two and for chaos to ensue. They haven't looked invincible this season.
-No. 7 TCU (8-0) has to win out to have any chance at the CFP, and even then there's no guarantee. The Horned Frogs host Texas Tech then have a tough two-game road swing at Texas and Baylor, which seems like the most likely stretch for a slip-up, before closing the regular season against Iowa State. The Trojans would leapfrog with any TCU loss, though it should be noted the Horned Frogs have notable wins over Oklahoma, Kansas, No. 18 Oklahoma State and No. 13 Kansas State, but USC will also have the chance to better that resume the rest of the way.
-No. 8 Oregon (7-1) has won seven straight games since that 49-3 loss to Georgia to start the Dan Lanning era. The Ducks control their path to the Pac-12 championship game with no league losses yet, but that path gets a little rocky after this week with a closing stretch of home vs. Washington, home vs. No. 14 Utah and at No. 23 Oregon State in a rivalry game. The Ducks have no margin for error if they hope to sneak into the top 4, but they also probably have the best shot from the Pac-12 to make it as well, with the loss to No. 3 Georgia so far in the rearview (and essentially coming on the road in a 'neutral-site' game in Atlanta), the commanding win over No. 12 UCLA and the chance for three more ranked wins, including the Pac-12 championship game. For USC, this is easy -- the Trojans need to hope that the Ducks do make the Pac-12 championship game, that USC also makes it and that it can beat Oregon on that stage to land another marquee win. The Ducks are crucial for the Trojans' CFP chances as they could be even a couple spots higher on this list by the Pac-12 title game. USC is going to need a win of that magnitude to have a chance to vault into the top 4, so for now, Trojans fans should be on the Ducks' bandwagon the next few weeks. Playing a two-loss Oregon team in the title game or rematching with UCLA or a two-loss Utah team won't have quite the same oomph.
So in summation, what is USC's path to the CFP?
Let's realistically concede two spots to the SEC (from any combination of Tennessee, Georgia and Alabama, or hope that LSU wrecks the party somehow), concede another spot to the Big Ten champ (if it's Ohio State or Michigan) and then hope for chaos -- Clemson losing anywhere along the way, one of those three SEC teams falling out, the Ohio State/Michigan loser falling out, TCU picking up its first loss somewhere and Oregon winning out before losing to the Trojans in the Pac-12 championship game. That scenario also, of course, requires Utah to lose again as it holds the Pac-12 tiebreaker over USC, but that would take care of itself with Oregon winning out (as the Ducks and Utes meet in Eugene on Nov. 19).
Got all that?
Or you can just take the Riley approach and focus on USC handling its part of the equation and then seeing how it all shakes out.
"I mean, I've told the team this, we had a year where we lost a game in the middle of the year and we were ranked pretty high, and that didn't matter and then all of a sudden we were like 19 with like a few weeks left -- oh, they've got no shot at the playoff. Five weeks later we got in the playoff. It matters none," Riley said of the initial CFP rankings. "I spend not one percent of my energy, brain power, attention, I can not care less. I care about it at one time -- and that's the last one. That's all that matters."
Riley also isn't worried about his Trojans team getting lost in any of that math and looking ahead. In fact, he suggested that is less of a concern than it would have been for his Oklahoma teams.
"A lot of us as staff members, we've been here, and I don't know if it makes it easier, but you know what it takes and you what you've got to avoid. And one of the pitfalls of a lot of teams is not staying focused on the moment at hand," Riley said. "I do think it helps us because we practice pretty hard. Not a lot of teams are in full pads Tuesdays this time of year. Our guys don't even think twice about it now -- it's just what we do. So I do believe the way we challenge them each and every day, if they're not locked in they get called out pretty quick, they get exposed pretty quick so it kind of makes it a daily fight. It's not like even looking at the games, it's 'like, 'All right, how do I do good in this Tuesday practice?' And that's got to be that singular focus.
"So we've done a good job I think responding to that. I don't really feel like we've looked ahead to other opponents as it's played out. And to be honest, when it's a program that maybe hasn't won quite as much as of late, it's honestly probably a little bit easier right now. It was probably a little bit tougher at times at the previous spot because we won so much."
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