UA won the PAC12 South last year and lost a close game to USC 26-28. Unfortunately for coach Rich Rodriguez, this isn't that team. The Wildcats can still score (at times) and laid 38 plus points on Oregon State, Colorado, and Washington State as well as 3 teams in OOC which was worthy of an SEC schedule. But they give up a lot of points ...45 or over to UCLA, Stanford, WSU and UW. In fact the Wildcats are 2-4 in the PAC12 with their only wins being Oregon State and Colorado.
UW, who is a stout defensive team ... gave up only 12 to USC.. held UA to 3. But the same dawgs who scored 17 vs. USC got 49 points over the Cats. UA plays a strange 3-3-5 at times, and UW did to them what USC did to Utah....ran most plays passes and runs around the ends, with changeups over the middle. (run and pass). That could be a good repeated formula for UW vs. Utah, and USC vs. UA this week On D they swarmed both UA QBs (Solomon and Randle) for 4 sacks.
Solomon has the better arm, though inaccurate on longer passes, but is not a great runner. Randle is somewhat the opposite, running better than passing. But the real story is the Defense as seen by comparative looks. Comparing them , the SOS of USC so far is the 5th toughest schedule in the country. UA ranks 66th. Against common foes USC lost to UW by 12-17 and Stanford by 31-41. UA was 3-47 vs. UW and 17-55 vs. Stanford.
USC and UA both have a balanced attack on offense, and both in the PAC12 average around 30 points a game. But on D its not close. USC holds Opponents to 23 points per game and UA gives up over 40 points per game. . USC has a plus 1.4 per game in TO margin and UA has a minus 1.33. that's about 3 TO difference gained per game. UA leads in less penalties, rushing offense, punt return yardage, and third down conversion. USC leads in most all defensive categories, Interceptions (8-1) opponent 3rd down conversion, and red zone defense. In other areas they are similar.
Intangibles: A letdown by USC after two big wins possibly. I'm not sure of any on UA , whose D is in disarray.
Bottom Line: If each played their game like they did recently this could be a USC rout. But UA can play some offense and could make it closer than imagined. However I'll stick with my prediction of USC 42-17.
UW, who is a stout defensive team ... gave up only 12 to USC.. held UA to 3. But the same dawgs who scored 17 vs. USC got 49 points over the Cats. UA plays a strange 3-3-5 at times, and UW did to them what USC did to Utah....ran most plays passes and runs around the ends, with changeups over the middle. (run and pass). That could be a good repeated formula for UW vs. Utah, and USC vs. UA this week On D they swarmed both UA QBs (Solomon and Randle) for 4 sacks.
Solomon has the better arm, though inaccurate on longer passes, but is not a great runner. Randle is somewhat the opposite, running better than passing. But the real story is the Defense as seen by comparative looks. Comparing them , the SOS of USC so far is the 5th toughest schedule in the country. UA ranks 66th. Against common foes USC lost to UW by 12-17 and Stanford by 31-41. UA was 3-47 vs. UW and 17-55 vs. Stanford.
USC and UA both have a balanced attack on offense, and both in the PAC12 average around 30 points a game. But on D its not close. USC holds Opponents to 23 points per game and UA gives up over 40 points per game. . USC has a plus 1.4 per game in TO margin and UA has a minus 1.33. that's about 3 TO difference gained per game. UA leads in less penalties, rushing offense, punt return yardage, and third down conversion. USC leads in most all defensive categories, Interceptions (8-1) opponent 3rd down conversion, and red zone defense. In other areas they are similar.
Intangibles: A letdown by USC after two big wins possibly. I'm not sure of any on UA , whose D is in disarray.
Bottom Line: If each played their game like they did recently this could be a USC rout. But UA can play some offense and could make it closer than imagined. However I'll stick with my prediction of USC 42-17.
