It's rare that USC plays the same team twice in a season but winning twice so far was done by Stanford in 2012 (UCLA) and 2013 (ASU) in this game . Oregon split with Arizona last year. USC and Stanford met this year in week 3 and it was a game closer in reality than it was in memory (Stanford winning 41-31). The scoring went USC 7-0, 7-7, 14-7 in Q1. 14-10, 21-10 21-17, 21-24 in Q2. 28-24, 28-31 in Q3. 28-38, 31-38, 31-41 in Q4. Their passing yardage was similar USC 272-Stanford 279. But the rushing yards favored Stanford 195-155 (RJ2 was just a pup in that game) . Stanford was 8-12 on 3rd downs, and dominated the time of possession 39.29- 20.31. USC on 3DC and 4DC went only 5- 12. USC had more penalty yardage than Stanford, 87 yards to 40. Those were the key elements in the game as neither team had a turnover.
At 28-24 late in the Q3, USC gave up the lead to Stanford at the 4:55 mark and was outscored 17-3 from that point as Stanford wore down the USC defense and penalties killed at least one USC drive. In that game Hogan ran for some big plays of 22.10, and 10 yards. That has to be stopped. RB McCaffrey gained 115 of their 195 and WR Hooper (one of 4 good receivers) had 79 yards receiving of their 279. Kessler ran for an 18 yarder. RBs Madden and Davis gained 105 of their 155, and WR Juju Smith -Shuster had a great game of 153 yards receiving of their 272.
In the last half of the season both teams were 5-1 in their last 6. But most wins were not easy for either team. Stanford's margin of victory was 17, 2 (WSU), 32, -2 (Ore), 13, and 2 (ND). USC's margin of victory was 18, 6 (Cal), 8 (UA), 3 (Col) , -20, and 19.
The major differences by specific areas...
Offense: SC is better in Passing Offense and Turnover margin and has a plus 1.08 per game in TO margin while Stanford has a minus 0.08. Stanford is better in Third and fourth down conversions, Rush offense, in not giving up sacks, in not giving up tackles for losses, and time of possession.
Defense: SC is better in preventing Third and Fourth down conversions, Getting defensive TDs, team sacks, getting tackles for losses, and forcing fumbles and interceptions. Stanford is better in first down defense, and in the passing yards given up per attempt.
Special teams: USC is better in Kickoff return coverage and Punt return defense. Stanford is better in getting Kickoff return yardage, , Punt return defense, and Punting average. Ditto FGs where they are 15-17 with a high of 52 yards and USC is 12-16 with a long of 43 yards.
A lot of strengths above play into the other teams strengths, Stanford's best scoring Differential is in the 2nd quarter 134-66 points overall, their worst is in the 4th 95-67. USC s best scoring Differential is also in the 2nd quarter 158-73 overall, and their worst is in the 4th 78-82.
Intangibles: Stanford is striving for a bigger prize with a win. USC is striving to show they have turned it around and to revenge the earlier loss. Levi Stadium is 350 miles from Los Angeles and only 13 miles from Stanford. But will Stanford travel there ? They haven't been the best of traveling schools. USC has greater athleticism. Stanford has stability.
Bottom Line: The first game was dominated by Stanford time of possession which made their still somewhat suspect D look better. Can USC disrupt this with long drives of their own? To win USC must slow down Montgomery in the run game, as well as keep Hogan in the pocket. And USC must stop Stanford in the Red Zone like they did the 2 prior years' games they played. USC has improved its secondary and Stanford isn't a razzle dazzle offense like Oregon. It should not be a rout for either team. I'll pick USCs athleticism slightly here. Forecast USC 35- Stanford 33.
At 28-24 late in the Q3, USC gave up the lead to Stanford at the 4:55 mark and was outscored 17-3 from that point as Stanford wore down the USC defense and penalties killed at least one USC drive. In that game Hogan ran for some big plays of 22.10, and 10 yards. That has to be stopped. RB McCaffrey gained 115 of their 195 and WR Hooper (one of 4 good receivers) had 79 yards receiving of their 279. Kessler ran for an 18 yarder. RBs Madden and Davis gained 105 of their 155, and WR Juju Smith -Shuster had a great game of 153 yards receiving of their 272.
In the last half of the season both teams were 5-1 in their last 6. But most wins were not easy for either team. Stanford's margin of victory was 17, 2 (WSU), 32, -2 (Ore), 13, and 2 (ND). USC's margin of victory was 18, 6 (Cal), 8 (UA), 3 (Col) , -20, and 19.
The major differences by specific areas...
Offense: SC is better in Passing Offense and Turnover margin and has a plus 1.08 per game in TO margin while Stanford has a minus 0.08. Stanford is better in Third and fourth down conversions, Rush offense, in not giving up sacks, in not giving up tackles for losses, and time of possession.
Defense: SC is better in preventing Third and Fourth down conversions, Getting defensive TDs, team sacks, getting tackles for losses, and forcing fumbles and interceptions. Stanford is better in first down defense, and in the passing yards given up per attempt.
Special teams: USC is better in Kickoff return coverage and Punt return defense. Stanford is better in getting Kickoff return yardage, , Punt return defense, and Punting average. Ditto FGs where they are 15-17 with a high of 52 yards and USC is 12-16 with a long of 43 yards.
A lot of strengths above play into the other teams strengths, Stanford's best scoring Differential is in the 2nd quarter 134-66 points overall, their worst is in the 4th 95-67. USC s best scoring Differential is also in the 2nd quarter 158-73 overall, and their worst is in the 4th 78-82.
Intangibles: Stanford is striving for a bigger prize with a win. USC is striving to show they have turned it around and to revenge the earlier loss. Levi Stadium is 350 miles from Los Angeles and only 13 miles from Stanford. But will Stanford travel there ? They haven't been the best of traveling schools. USC has greater athleticism. Stanford has stability.
Bottom Line: The first game was dominated by Stanford time of possession which made their still somewhat suspect D look better. Can USC disrupt this with long drives of their own? To win USC must slow down Montgomery in the run game, as well as keep Hogan in the pocket. And USC must stop Stanford in the Red Zone like they did the 2 prior years' games they played. USC has improved its secondary and Stanford isn't a razzle dazzle offense like Oregon. It should not be a rout for either team. I'll pick USCs athleticism slightly here. Forecast USC 35- Stanford 33.