Its nice to have a USC-UCLA game that means something tangible besides winning 50-50 recruits, and getting LA bragging rights for a year. These teams are very close in fortunes and capabilities. USC has had injuries and departures and had to replace them with younger personnel. UCLA is ditto. Both have blown out teams USC: Idaho, Arkansas Sate, ASU and Utah. UCLA blew out : UNLV, Arizona, and Oregon State. Both have been blown out: USC to Oregon by 20, UCLA to Stanford by 21. But USC is not Stanford, and UCLA is not close to Oregon's offense.
The major differences are by specific areas...Offense: SC is better in Passing (Completion %), and Pass efficiency , Time of possession, and Turnover margin. USC has a plus 0.91 per game in TO margin and UCLA has plus 0.36. UCLA is better in Third down conversion, Red Zone offense, and in not giving up sacks.
Defense: SC is better in preventing Third down conversions, Getting defensive TDs, and against the rush. UCLA is better in Red Zone defense, and in the passing yards given up per attempt.
Special teams: USC is better in Kickoff return coverage. UCLA is better in Punt return defense, their own Punt return yardage, and Punting average. Ditto FGs where they are 20-22 with a high of 53 yards and USC is 10-14 with a long of 43 yards.
With Common foes (UCLA scores, USC scores): vs. Stanford (35-56, 31-41), Cal (40-24,27-21, Colorado (35-31, 27-24), ASU (23-38, 42-14), Utah (17-8, 42-24), and Arizona (56-30, 38-30). USC runs 53 % of the time and passes 47% of the time. UCLA runs 49% of the time and passes 51% of the time.
USC at home is 4-2 and UCLA away is 4-1. UCLA's best scoring Differential is in the 2nd quarter 129-69 points overall, their worst is in the 4th 73-65. And eerily, USC s best scoring Differential is also in the 2nd quarter 141-66 overall, and their worst is in the 4th 71-82.
Intangibles: UCLA seniors want to make it 4 years in a row vs. USC in a series that has been very streaky. USCs motivation is at home on Senior day when USC seniors want to avert losing to UCLA all four years, perhaps a bigger motivation. Despite the blowout loss (14-35) to UCLA in 2013, USC has fared well against the powder Black (!) UCLA at the Old Grey lady winning the prior 7 by scores of 50-0, 28-7, 24-7, 66-19, 47-22, 27-0 and 17-7. USC will be playing for themselves and Helton. USC has overcome a lot more adversity than UCLA has so far.
Bottom Line: USC has been susceptible to passes, and UCLA susceptible to runs up the middle. I expect USC to control the ball and with a 5 year QB playing versus a first year QB (though a good one) in this game to have an advantage. Forecast USC 35- UCLA 31. See you there.
The major differences are by specific areas...Offense: SC is better in Passing (Completion %), and Pass efficiency , Time of possession, and Turnover margin. USC has a plus 0.91 per game in TO margin and UCLA has plus 0.36. UCLA is better in Third down conversion, Red Zone offense, and in not giving up sacks.
Defense: SC is better in preventing Third down conversions, Getting defensive TDs, and against the rush. UCLA is better in Red Zone defense, and in the passing yards given up per attempt.
Special teams: USC is better in Kickoff return coverage. UCLA is better in Punt return defense, their own Punt return yardage, and Punting average. Ditto FGs where they are 20-22 with a high of 53 yards and USC is 10-14 with a long of 43 yards.
With Common foes (UCLA scores, USC scores): vs. Stanford (35-56, 31-41), Cal (40-24,27-21, Colorado (35-31, 27-24), ASU (23-38, 42-14), Utah (17-8, 42-24), and Arizona (56-30, 38-30). USC runs 53 % of the time and passes 47% of the time. UCLA runs 49% of the time and passes 51% of the time.
USC at home is 4-2 and UCLA away is 4-1. UCLA's best scoring Differential is in the 2nd quarter 129-69 points overall, their worst is in the 4th 73-65. And eerily, USC s best scoring Differential is also in the 2nd quarter 141-66 overall, and their worst is in the 4th 71-82.
Intangibles: UCLA seniors want to make it 4 years in a row vs. USC in a series that has been very streaky. USCs motivation is at home on Senior day when USC seniors want to avert losing to UCLA all four years, perhaps a bigger motivation. Despite the blowout loss (14-35) to UCLA in 2013, USC has fared well against the powder Black (!) UCLA at the Old Grey lady winning the prior 7 by scores of 50-0, 28-7, 24-7, 66-19, 47-22, 27-0 and 17-7. USC will be playing for themselves and Helton. USC has overcome a lot more adversity than UCLA has so far.
Bottom Line: USC has been susceptible to passes, and UCLA susceptible to runs up the middle. I expect USC to control the ball and with a 5 year QB playing versus a first year QB (though a good one) in this game to have an advantage. Forecast USC 35- UCLA 31. See you there.
