How does that song go? "It's only just begun"...
Morgan Stanley credits Bidenomics for ‘much stronger’ than expected GDP growth
PUBLISHED FRI, JUL 21 20235:21 PM EDTChristina Wilkie@IN/CHRISTINA-WILKIE-6004564/@CHRISTINAWILKIE
WASHINGTON — Morgan Stanley is crediting President Joe Biden’s economic policies with driving an unexpected surge in the U.S. economy that is so significant that the bank was forced to make a “sizable upward revision” to its estimates for U.S. gross domestic product.
Biden’s Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act is “driving a boom in large-scale infrastructure,” wrote Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist for Morgan Stanley, in a research note released Thursday. In addition to infrastructure, “manufacturing construction has shown broad strength,” she wrote.
As a result of these unexpected swells, Morgan Stanley now projects 1.9% GDP growth for the first half of this year. That’s nearly four times higher than the bank’s previous forecast of 0.5%.
“The economy in the first half of the year is growing much stronger than we had anticipated, putting a more comfortable cushion under our long-held soft landing view,” Zentner wrote.
The analysts also doubled their original estimate for GDP growth in the fourth quarter, to 1.3% from 0.6%. Looking into next year, they raised their forecast for real GDP in 2024 by a tenth of a percent, to 1.4%.
“The narrative behind the numbers tells the story of industrial strength in the U.S,” Zentner wrote.
Morgan Stanley’s revision came at a pivotal time for the Biden White House. The president has spent the summer crisscrossing the country, touting his economic achievements. “Together we are transforming the country, not just through jobs, not just through manufacturing, but also by rebuilding our infrastructure,” Biden said Thursday during a visit to a Philadelphia shipyard.
The White House has dubbed this brick-and-mortar economic growth formula “Bidenomics,” a phrase originally used by Republicans to jab the president, who co-opted the term as a badge of honor.
In addition to his legacy, Biden has also staked his 2024 reelection bid on Bidenomics, betting that strong economic growth and a campaign built around kitchen table issues will ultimately drown out Republicans’ culture war outrage.
