As we all know a week from yesterday we will know if the Federal Reserve will go through with its raising interest rates by 25 basis points. The consensus since Yellen's last statement is that they will. However, news this morning gives them one thing to hang their hat on to decide not to raise the rate. That news as reported on Zero Hedge:
"Initial Jobless Claims Suddenly Surge To 5-Month Highs, Continuing Claims Spike
Weak surveys, mass layoffs, and poor outlooks appear to have finally rippled through the government's data and sparked a significant rise in initial jobless claims. Up 13k to 282k, this is the highest claims since early July. Of course, it remains below the Maginot Line of 300k which 'proves' everything is awesome, but initial claims is now at the same level as it was when The Fed ended QE3. Perhaps more notable is the spike in continuing claims (up 3.8%) - the end biggest jump since 2008 to 3 month highs."
You can go to their web site and read the rest of the article if you wish. So, is this news just enough to allow the Fed a small window in which to not raise rates? Or, were there ever going to in the first place? Time will tell.
One last piece of information out today is the state of the deficit. Not the debt as we know where that is. BUT, the deficit. As reported by AP:
"The federal budget deficit widened in November, driven by higher spending in areas as such as Social Security, Medicare and defense.
The November deficit climbed to $64.6 billion, up 13.6 percent from a year ago, the Treasury Department reported Thursday. For the first two months of the budget year that began on Oct. 1, the deficit totaled $201.1 billion, a 12.6 percent jump from a year ago.
Total receipts are up 2.9 percent to $416 billion over the past two months compared to a year ago. Tax revenues are growing as unemployment declines. But spending grew an even larger 5.9 percent to $617.1 billion."
And, least one forget the proposed budget for next year as reported today, again by AP:
"WASHINGTON (AP) -- White House and congressional negotiators searched for compromise Thursday on huge tax and spending bills with a combined price tag of well over $1 trillion, with leaders hoping to clinch agreements and let Congress adjourn next week for the year".
At about 11:00 a.m. PST on Dec. 16, things will be very interesting.
"Initial Jobless Claims Suddenly Surge To 5-Month Highs, Continuing Claims Spike
Weak surveys, mass layoffs, and poor outlooks appear to have finally rippled through the government's data and sparked a significant rise in initial jobless claims. Up 13k to 282k, this is the highest claims since early July. Of course, it remains below the Maginot Line of 300k which 'proves' everything is awesome, but initial claims is now at the same level as it was when The Fed ended QE3. Perhaps more notable is the spike in continuing claims (up 3.8%) - the end biggest jump since 2008 to 3 month highs."
You can go to their web site and read the rest of the article if you wish. So, is this news just enough to allow the Fed a small window in which to not raise rates? Or, were there ever going to in the first place? Time will tell.
One last piece of information out today is the state of the deficit. Not the debt as we know where that is. BUT, the deficit. As reported by AP:
"The federal budget deficit widened in November, driven by higher spending in areas as such as Social Security, Medicare and defense.
The November deficit climbed to $64.6 billion, up 13.6 percent from a year ago, the Treasury Department reported Thursday. For the first two months of the budget year that began on Oct. 1, the deficit totaled $201.1 billion, a 12.6 percent jump from a year ago.
Total receipts are up 2.9 percent to $416 billion over the past two months compared to a year ago. Tax revenues are growing as unemployment declines. But spending grew an even larger 5.9 percent to $617.1 billion."
And, least one forget the proposed budget for next year as reported today, again by AP:
"WASHINGTON (AP) -- White House and congressional negotiators searched for compromise Thursday on huge tax and spending bills with a combined price tag of well over $1 trillion, with leaders hoping to clinch agreements and let Congress adjourn next week for the year".
At about 11:00 a.m. PST on Dec. 16, things will be very interesting.
