Here we are in the last week of THE game , so here are some items that could be of interest: From last years results the offenses performed similarly and the defenses much favor Alabama. Heres the average game numbers with Alabama's first- USCs second:
Offense: Points per game (Ala 35.1-USC 34.9), yards per game (427-438), Yards per play (5.9-6.2), Turnover margin (+ 10 to +11). Pretty close numbers. The Rushing yards per game (200-168) with Yards per carry (4.7-4.5). In passing yards per game (227-270) and % completion (67.5-66.7) with yards per pass (12.2-12.9). Overall production of yards per play (5.9-6.2) and sacks against (25-38). Alabama is a little better in the run but USC is better in the pass.. Now upgrade that to this year...Alabama has lost NFL draftees OC Kelly (Rd 1), RB Henry (Rd2) and RB Kenyan Drake (Rd3), and undrafted QB Coker, RT Dominic Jackson, and are missing WR Mullaney. USC lost QB Kessler (Rd 3) and #3 RB Tre Madden. USC will likely have a better O than Alabama. Overall Alabama lost 5 starters on O and 6 on D. USC lost 1 starter on O and 6 on D.
Defense. Points allowed per game (Ala 15.1-USC 25.7), yards allowed per game (276-401), Yards per play (4.3-5.7). Rushing yards per game (76-149) with Yards per carry (2.4-4.0). In passing, yards per game (201-252) and % complete (50.5-63.0) with yards per pass (18.3-15.6). Overall production of yards per play (4.3-5.7) and sacks for (53-38). Alabama is better versus the run but better vs. the pass. Alabama has lost NFL draftees ILB Ragland (Rd 2), DTs Robinson (Rd 2) and Reed (Rd 2), CB Jones (Rd2), and undrafted FS Matias-Smith. USC lost LB Cravens (Rd 2) and CB Seymour (Rd 6) and undrafted DTs Simmons, Townsend Jr., and Woods. Alabama had the better D against the run and overall, but the DBs gave up a lot against deep passing teams. Update: some good talent was lost by Alabama. Its still scary good but questions need to be resolved.
Strengths: Alabama has those areas mainly in strong receiving and the Oline is good. On D the front four is formidable and can sack the opposition QB. And of course, the coaching staff is solid. Weakness: The DB unit pales a little and aren't exactly facing the best passing attacks of the PAC-12 each week. The Kicking is average with Griifith hitting 23-32 (72%) but is 2-2 at 50 plus.
USC has strong areas in running , receiving and Oline . On D the DBs are deeper and better, and the LBs have talent and depth. Weakness: The DL unit lost a lot. The Kicking is a question mark with new players, but they both have potential to be better.
Myth or reality....Saban does well on openers. Well, he is 9-0 during his Alabama roll tide roll role. And in his last 8 he has faced Power 5 conference teams, the first or second game. Six of them were ranked top 25 at the time of the game. This is his first time facing a PAC team while at Alabama. He did face two pre-PAC teams his first two years in bowls, beating Colorado in 2007 30-24 and losing to Utah in 2008 by 17-31.
Bottom line: Both lost a senior QB but USC has the more experienced and possibly more talented Offense (especially game breakers). On defense Alabama is scary good but have that one window in the secondary; expect USC to try to go there if the OLine can hold off 'Bamas line rush . It makes for an interesting game. BTW if a 10 point odds seems high, in early games since 2010 here are the opening odds for Alabama's games vs. decent opposition....plus 12, 10, 13, 21, 25, and 12 ....so there is a slim respect at 10 points there from the odds makers this year.
Time to pick: My mind says Alabama but my heart ("be still my heart") says USC in a nipper.....USC 24 Alabama 21
Offense: Points per game (Ala 35.1-USC 34.9), yards per game (427-438), Yards per play (5.9-6.2), Turnover margin (+ 10 to +11). Pretty close numbers. The Rushing yards per game (200-168) with Yards per carry (4.7-4.5). In passing yards per game (227-270) and % completion (67.5-66.7) with yards per pass (12.2-12.9). Overall production of yards per play (5.9-6.2) and sacks against (25-38). Alabama is a little better in the run but USC is better in the pass.. Now upgrade that to this year...Alabama has lost NFL draftees OC Kelly (Rd 1), RB Henry (Rd2) and RB Kenyan Drake (Rd3), and undrafted QB Coker, RT Dominic Jackson, and are missing WR Mullaney. USC lost QB Kessler (Rd 3) and #3 RB Tre Madden. USC will likely have a better O than Alabama. Overall Alabama lost 5 starters on O and 6 on D. USC lost 1 starter on O and 6 on D.
Defense. Points allowed per game (Ala 15.1-USC 25.7), yards allowed per game (276-401), Yards per play (4.3-5.7). Rushing yards per game (76-149) with Yards per carry (2.4-4.0). In passing, yards per game (201-252) and % complete (50.5-63.0) with yards per pass (18.3-15.6). Overall production of yards per play (4.3-5.7) and sacks for (53-38). Alabama is better versus the run but better vs. the pass. Alabama has lost NFL draftees ILB Ragland (Rd 2), DTs Robinson (Rd 2) and Reed (Rd 2), CB Jones (Rd2), and undrafted FS Matias-Smith. USC lost LB Cravens (Rd 2) and CB Seymour (Rd 6) and undrafted DTs Simmons, Townsend Jr., and Woods. Alabama had the better D against the run and overall, but the DBs gave up a lot against deep passing teams. Update: some good talent was lost by Alabama. Its still scary good but questions need to be resolved.
Strengths: Alabama has those areas mainly in strong receiving and the Oline is good. On D the front four is formidable and can sack the opposition QB. And of course, the coaching staff is solid. Weakness: The DB unit pales a little and aren't exactly facing the best passing attacks of the PAC-12 each week. The Kicking is average with Griifith hitting 23-32 (72%) but is 2-2 at 50 plus.
USC has strong areas in running , receiving and Oline . On D the DBs are deeper and better, and the LBs have talent and depth. Weakness: The DL unit lost a lot. The Kicking is a question mark with new players, but they both have potential to be better.
Myth or reality....Saban does well on openers. Well, he is 9-0 during his Alabama roll tide roll role. And in his last 8 he has faced Power 5 conference teams, the first or second game. Six of them were ranked top 25 at the time of the game. This is his first time facing a PAC team while at Alabama. He did face two pre-PAC teams his first two years in bowls, beating Colorado in 2007 30-24 and losing to Utah in 2008 by 17-31.
Bottom line: Both lost a senior QB but USC has the more experienced and possibly more talented Offense (especially game breakers). On defense Alabama is scary good but have that one window in the secondary; expect USC to try to go there if the OLine can hold off 'Bamas line rush . It makes for an interesting game. BTW if a 10 point odds seems high, in early games since 2010 here are the opening odds for Alabama's games vs. decent opposition....plus 12, 10, 13, 21, 25, and 12 ....so there is a slim respect at 10 points there from the odds makers this year.
Time to pick: My mind says Alabama but my heart ("be still my heart") says USC in a nipper.....USC 24 Alabama 21
