Some things to know about the USC-Ohio State Cotton Bowl….
1. The stadium is the scene of one of the USCs worst defeats in 2016 to Alabama, 52-6. In 2016 Ohio State also got walloped by Clemson 31-0 (who beat that Alabama team 35-31) in 2016.
2. In 2017 conference comparison: 8 of 14 teams in the Big 10 made a bowl, but 8 teams of the 14 were below .500 in Big 10 conference play. In the PAC12 10 of 12 made a bowl and 6 teams of the 12 were below .500 in their conference games. The PAC12 was a little less top heavy than the Big10 this year based on these figures.
3. Ohio State played Wisconsin (27-21, PSU (39-38), MSU (48-3), and UM(31-20) of the .555 or better in conference teams. USC played 5 games against top conference teams Stanford twice (42-24, 31-28), WSU (27-30), ASU (48-17), and UA(49-35). of the .555 or better.
4. Both lost 2 games: Ohio State at home against both Oklahoma (16-31), and Iowa(corrected: 24-55). USC lost away to Washington State (27-30), and Notre Dame(14-49). That second loss killed both in the eyes of the playoff selection committee.
5. The long term record for whatever it means, has USC ahead in the series 13-9-1 and 2-0 in the last decade.
6. The key strengths for Ohio State: OL (big and experienced) that is strong up the middle. QB Barrett experienced and a hard runner. RB Dobbins- decent runner. Defense: A tough front seven. A somewhat better than average secondary. Weaknesses: Barrett is not as quick (as was UA's Tate) and mostly an up the middle runner. His passing is sporadic at times. His backup QB is better passer, but green. The defense has given up large pass plays and sustained long drives on the ground. It is average on sacks (both for and against). The secondary has done all right statistically but in 4 games I watched were fortunate that the opposing QB missed wide open receivers in each of the games. Baker Mayfield got near 400 in the air. Iowa's N Stanley got 226 and 5 TDs. Overall their place kicker is good under 40 yards, questionable beyond 40 yards.
7. The key strengths for USC : QB Darnold is experienced and a good combo of accuracy and elusiveness. RB RoJo is one of the top RBs- he will need to get to the corner. Receivers, deep and trustworthy.. Defense: A tough front seven It is one of the best on sacks. A good ball hawking secondary. Weaknesses: OL that is strong against the pass rush but sometimes overwhelmed on run plays. Darnold can be subject to interceptions against better secondaries. The defense has given up large yardage plays. Overall the place kicker is questionable beyond 45 yards, but has hit 3-4 in 40+ yarders.
8.Comparable stats: Many stats are close: Turnover margin SC+1, OSU+2. SC leads in getting Interceptions 16-12 but gives up more ints. 12-10. USC leads in sacks 3.31 - 2.85 pg and in TFL 4.54-4.14 pg. Here are the comparison stats of key personnel.
QB SC/Sam Darnold- 3787 YP, 63.7%, 8.71 yards per attempt-26 TDs, 12 Ints. OSU/QB JT Barrett- 2939 YP, 64.7%, 8.30 yards per attempt-35 TDs, 9 Ints.
RB SC/ Ronald Jones- 1486 yards-6.1ypc, long of 86 yds,18 TD. Stephen Carr- 363 yards-5.8ypc, 52 yd long,3 TD. OSU/ Dobbins- 1361 yards-7.5ypc,86 yds long,7 TD. JT Barrett- 732 yards-4.9ypc, 37 yd long, 10 TD.
Receivers SC/ D. Burnett 74c-975y-13.2ypc-42L, 9TD. T Vaughns 51c-690y-13.5ypc-42L, 5TD. S. Mitchell 41c-649y-15.7ypc-49L, 4TD. M. Pittman 20c-335y-16.5 ypc-54L, 2TD. OSU/ P. Campbell 39c-587y-15.7ypc-74L, 3TD. KS Hill 55c-546y-9.9ypc-29L, 3TD. T. McLaurin 28c-434y-15.5ypc-84L, 6TD. J Dixon- 18c-422y-23.4ypc-70L, 8TD.
9. Bottom line- USC's passing game is better, Ohio State running is slightly better because of Barrett. But both are close overall. SC needs to slow down Barrett, and will win a humdinger of a game 35-31.
1. The stadium is the scene of one of the USCs worst defeats in 2016 to Alabama, 52-6. In 2016 Ohio State also got walloped by Clemson 31-0 (who beat that Alabama team 35-31) in 2016.
2. In 2017 conference comparison: 8 of 14 teams in the Big 10 made a bowl, but 8 teams of the 14 were below .500 in Big 10 conference play. In the PAC12 10 of 12 made a bowl and 6 teams of the 12 were below .500 in their conference games. The PAC12 was a little less top heavy than the Big10 this year based on these figures.
3. Ohio State played Wisconsin (27-21, PSU (39-38), MSU (48-3), and UM(31-20) of the .555 or better in conference teams. USC played 5 games against top conference teams Stanford twice (42-24, 31-28), WSU (27-30), ASU (48-17), and UA(49-35). of the .555 or better.
4. Both lost 2 games: Ohio State at home against both Oklahoma (16-31), and Iowa(corrected: 24-55). USC lost away to Washington State (27-30), and Notre Dame(14-49). That second loss killed both in the eyes of the playoff selection committee.
5. The long term record for whatever it means, has USC ahead in the series 13-9-1 and 2-0 in the last decade.
6. The key strengths for Ohio State: OL (big and experienced) that is strong up the middle. QB Barrett experienced and a hard runner. RB Dobbins- decent runner. Defense: A tough front seven. A somewhat better than average secondary. Weaknesses: Barrett is not as quick (as was UA's Tate) and mostly an up the middle runner. His passing is sporadic at times. His backup QB is better passer, but green. The defense has given up large pass plays and sustained long drives on the ground. It is average on sacks (both for and against). The secondary has done all right statistically but in 4 games I watched were fortunate that the opposing QB missed wide open receivers in each of the games. Baker Mayfield got near 400 in the air. Iowa's N Stanley got 226 and 5 TDs. Overall their place kicker is good under 40 yards, questionable beyond 40 yards.
7. The key strengths for USC : QB Darnold is experienced and a good combo of accuracy and elusiveness. RB RoJo is one of the top RBs- he will need to get to the corner. Receivers, deep and trustworthy.. Defense: A tough front seven It is one of the best on sacks. A good ball hawking secondary. Weaknesses: OL that is strong against the pass rush but sometimes overwhelmed on run plays. Darnold can be subject to interceptions against better secondaries. The defense has given up large yardage plays. Overall the place kicker is questionable beyond 45 yards, but has hit 3-4 in 40+ yarders.
8.Comparable stats: Many stats are close: Turnover margin SC+1, OSU+2. SC leads in getting Interceptions 16-12 but gives up more ints. 12-10. USC leads in sacks 3.31 - 2.85 pg and in TFL 4.54-4.14 pg. Here are the comparison stats of key personnel.
QB SC/Sam Darnold- 3787 YP, 63.7%, 8.71 yards per attempt-26 TDs, 12 Ints. OSU/QB JT Barrett- 2939 YP, 64.7%, 8.30 yards per attempt-35 TDs, 9 Ints.
RB SC/ Ronald Jones- 1486 yards-6.1ypc, long of 86 yds,18 TD. Stephen Carr- 363 yards-5.8ypc, 52 yd long,3 TD. OSU/ Dobbins- 1361 yards-7.5ypc,86 yds long,7 TD. JT Barrett- 732 yards-4.9ypc, 37 yd long, 10 TD.
Receivers SC/ D. Burnett 74c-975y-13.2ypc-42L, 9TD. T Vaughns 51c-690y-13.5ypc-42L, 5TD. S. Mitchell 41c-649y-15.7ypc-49L, 4TD. M. Pittman 20c-335y-16.5 ypc-54L, 2TD. OSU/ P. Campbell 39c-587y-15.7ypc-74L, 3TD. KS Hill 55c-546y-9.9ypc-29L, 3TD. T. McLaurin 28c-434y-15.5ypc-84L, 6TD. J Dixon- 18c-422y-23.4ypc-70L, 8TD.
9. Bottom line- USC's passing game is better, Ohio State running is slightly better because of Barrett. But both are close overall. SC needs to slow down Barrett, and will win a humdinger of a game 35-31.
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