I was curious about how telling Rivals' rankings really were on whether a recruit would have a meaningful playing time contribution to the team when viewed from history. I expected a fairly large disparity in the playing time from a 5 star vs. a 3 star, and, not surprisingly, that is the case based on SC's recruits since 2009. Digging a little more though, I was surprised at just how accurate the 5 star ranking was in predicting a player being a consistent contributor and at how low the chances of a 3 star being a consistent contributor are.
SC has had 23 5 stars since 2009 and 30 3 stars (I excluded ST players). By my un-scientific count, 65% of the 5 stars have been starters playing heavy minutes when the games mattered, with Bigelow and John Houston still having a chance to add to that count. There were very few true 5 star "busts." Some guys might not have lived up to the hype or were derailed by injuries, but most all of them contributed heavily to the team. The three in 2010 (Prater, Baxter, Ambles) were a big swing and a miss, but other than that, it's a very high success rate.
In that same time, only 5 of the 30 3 stars ever ended up starting meaningful minutes, although quite a few are still on the roster and could eventually get time.
I don't follow recruiting in depth like most on this site, but I found this interesting, so I thought I'd share. Here is the full list of 3 stars vs. 5 stars since 2009. Obviously you still have to coach them and teach them, but the odds of a 5 star contributing vs. a 3 star is very very significant. More so than I would have guessed.
Hopefully this formatting works...
Three Stars /Year / Five Stars
Issac Whitney 2015 Biggie
Cole Smith 2015 Gustin
Kevin Scott 2015 Rasheem Green
Christian Rector 2015 John Houston
Deontay Burnett 2015 xx
Lamont Simmons 2014 JuJu
Plattenburg 2014 Adoree
Nwosu 2014 xx
Don Hill 2014 xx
Ajene 2014 xx
Jalen Green 2014 xx
Malik Dorton 2014 xx
Jordan Austin 2014 xx
None 2013 Sua
xx 2013 McQuay
xx 2013 Ty Issac
xx 2013 Max Browne
xx 2013 Bigelow
Chad Wheeler 2012 Jordan Simmons
Pinner 2012 Banner
xx 2012 Agholor
Devante Wilson 2011 Farmer
Isiah Wiley 2011 xx
Cody Temple 2011 xx
JR Tavai 2011 xx
Marcus Martin 2011 xx
Dallas Kelly 2011 xx
Ryan Henderson 2011 xx
David Garness 2011 xx
Jeremy Galten 2011 xx
Steve Dillon 2011 xx
Charles Burks 2011 xx
Buck Allen 2011 xx
Anthony Brown 2010 Woods
xx 2010 Prater
xx 2010 Ambles
xx 2010 Baxter
Kevin Greene 2009 TJ McDonald
xx 2009 Devon Kennard
xx 2009 Patrick Hall
xx 2009 Matt Barkley
5 15
30 23
17% 65%
SC has had 23 5 stars since 2009 and 30 3 stars (I excluded ST players). By my un-scientific count, 65% of the 5 stars have been starters playing heavy minutes when the games mattered, with Bigelow and John Houston still having a chance to add to that count. There were very few true 5 star "busts." Some guys might not have lived up to the hype or were derailed by injuries, but most all of them contributed heavily to the team. The three in 2010 (Prater, Baxter, Ambles) were a big swing and a miss, but other than that, it's a very high success rate.
In that same time, only 5 of the 30 3 stars ever ended up starting meaningful minutes, although quite a few are still on the roster and could eventually get time.
I don't follow recruiting in depth like most on this site, but I found this interesting, so I thought I'd share. Here is the full list of 3 stars vs. 5 stars since 2009. Obviously you still have to coach them and teach them, but the odds of a 5 star contributing vs. a 3 star is very very significant. More so than I would have guessed.
Hopefully this formatting works...
Three Stars /Year / Five Stars
Issac Whitney 2015 Biggie
Cole Smith 2015 Gustin
Kevin Scott 2015 Rasheem Green
Christian Rector 2015 John Houston
Deontay Burnett 2015 xx
Lamont Simmons 2014 JuJu
Plattenburg 2014 Adoree
Nwosu 2014 xx
Don Hill 2014 xx
Ajene 2014 xx
Jalen Green 2014 xx
Malik Dorton 2014 xx
Jordan Austin 2014 xx
None 2013 Sua
xx 2013 McQuay
xx 2013 Ty Issac
xx 2013 Max Browne
xx 2013 Bigelow
Chad Wheeler 2012 Jordan Simmons
Pinner 2012 Banner
xx 2012 Agholor
Devante Wilson 2011 Farmer
Isiah Wiley 2011 xx
Cody Temple 2011 xx
JR Tavai 2011 xx
Marcus Martin 2011 xx
Dallas Kelly 2011 xx
Ryan Henderson 2011 xx
David Garness 2011 xx
Jeremy Galten 2011 xx
Steve Dillon 2011 xx
Charles Burks 2011 xx
Buck Allen 2011 xx
Anthony Brown 2010 Woods
xx 2010 Prater
xx 2010 Ambles
xx 2010 Baxter
Kevin Greene 2009 TJ McDonald
xx 2009 Devon Kennard
xx 2009 Patrick Hall
xx 2009 Matt Barkley
5 15
30 23
17% 65%
