Watching the Navy at ND game I came away still puzzled as to who Notre Dame is. They have played 6 teams and 4 of were under .500 teams -Texas is 2-4, Virginia is 1-4. Georgia Tech is 2-4. UMass is 1-4. Clemson is 5-0 and Navy is 4-1.But outside of ND , Clemson has played Wolford, Appalachian State, Georgia Tech and at Louisville. Not a gauntlet by any means. And Navy played Colgate, East Carolina, at Connecticut, and Air Force. Hardly the Ancient Yankees "Murderers row". And to be fair USC played 2 lower teams in Arkansas State (won) and Idaho (won) but lost to 2 of 3 to pretty good teams in Stanford, ASU, and Washington.
So it's tough to gauge Notre Dame other than what I saw from the Clemson and Navy games. At Clemson the Tigers were up 21-3 until a mid 4h quarter score then ND made a TD with seconds remaining in the 4th quarter to draw to 22-24. The nearly all-run Navy played well the first half but the bigger ND team wore them down in the second half. Losing Navy starting QB Keener For 2 quarters didn't help . Navy had chunks of ground yards and converted 4 of 5 4th down plays. ND relied mostly on passes to make their drives, and received two turnovers deep in Navy territory for 14 of their points. I was impressed with the ND offense but not their defense. And new QB Kizer is a redshirt frosh who is not the same runner as Zaire, and has a little less arm. Running Back Prosise ,a converted WR (6-1 220 ), is a good athlete but lacks the running back instincts on cuts that out -of- action starter Taren Folston 5-10, 214 has.. As a team they have vets everywhere but seemed a step slower than I remember them. The OL averages 330 pounds
Comparing them , through the SOS is disparate : USC is better at having a balanced attack (168 runs and 164 passes) versus ND's (235 run- 175 pass). USC has a plus 5 in TO margin and ND has a minus 3. This is an important stat in close games. ND leads in third down conversion, Rushing offense (by about 0.5 yards per), Time of possession and total defense. USC leads in 4th down defense, Passing completions %, Passing O ( by about 1.5 yards per pass), and scoring defense. In other areas they are similar. To me USC should stay with the run if it is working. ND looks vulnerable around the periphery on run or pass.
Intangibles: USC won big last year by 49-14 and this could make it a revenge game or it could denote talent discrepancy. USC, which looks like the "University of Sudden Changes" can play "Win it for the Gipper", whichever coach is the Gipper.
Bottom Line: The team I saw in USC last week played good D and poor O. The ND team played decent O and adequate D. As to forecasts its really a difficult one but I'll play homer and say USC upsets ND in a knuckle biter...27 to 24.
So it's tough to gauge Notre Dame other than what I saw from the Clemson and Navy games. At Clemson the Tigers were up 21-3 until a mid 4h quarter score then ND made a TD with seconds remaining in the 4th quarter to draw to 22-24. The nearly all-run Navy played well the first half but the bigger ND team wore them down in the second half. Losing Navy starting QB Keener For 2 quarters didn't help . Navy had chunks of ground yards and converted 4 of 5 4th down plays. ND relied mostly on passes to make their drives, and received two turnovers deep in Navy territory for 14 of their points. I was impressed with the ND offense but not their defense. And new QB Kizer is a redshirt frosh who is not the same runner as Zaire, and has a little less arm. Running Back Prosise ,a converted WR (6-1 220 ), is a good athlete but lacks the running back instincts on cuts that out -of- action starter Taren Folston 5-10, 214 has.. As a team they have vets everywhere but seemed a step slower than I remember them. The OL averages 330 pounds
Comparing them , through the SOS is disparate : USC is better at having a balanced attack (168 runs and 164 passes) versus ND's (235 run- 175 pass). USC has a plus 5 in TO margin and ND has a minus 3. This is an important stat in close games. ND leads in third down conversion, Rushing offense (by about 0.5 yards per), Time of possession and total defense. USC leads in 4th down defense, Passing completions %, Passing O ( by about 1.5 yards per pass), and scoring defense. In other areas they are similar. To me USC should stay with the run if it is working. ND looks vulnerable around the periphery on run or pass.
Intangibles: USC won big last year by 49-14 and this could make it a revenge game or it could denote talent discrepancy. USC, which looks like the "University of Sudden Changes" can play "Win it for the Gipper", whichever coach is the Gipper.
Bottom Line: The team I saw in USC last week played good D and poor O. The ND team played decent O and adequate D. As to forecasts its really a difficult one but I'll play homer and say USC upsets ND in a knuckle biter...27 to 24.
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